If China wants to take over the Pacific its obvious goal will be to knock Japan out of the Quad. From a purely strategic point of view Japan, not Taiwan, is the crown jewel.
How best to neutralize Japan? Control Luzon or Taiwan. Luzon was in many ways the historic geostrategic equivalent of Taiwan (once known as Formosa) as a stepping stone to Japan. In 1944 the allied planners considered this exact problem in relation to the goal of neutering Japan.
To secure a port on the China coast, and simultaneously to cut Japan’s line of communication to the south, the Allies would have to gain control of the South China Sea. Gaining this control, the Joint Chiefs realized, would in turn involve the seizure and development of large air, naval, and logistical bases in the strategic triangle formed by the south China coast, Formosa, and Luzon.
Official US Army history
What tipped the balance was the realization that taking Luzon was getting halfway to taking Formosa. If one couldn’t take Taiwan directly, Luzon was an attractive prelude.
MacArthur also believed that an invasion of Formosa would prove unduly hazardous unless he provided air and logistical support from Luzon. Finally, he suggested, if the Allies took Luzon first they could then bypass Formosa and strike for targets farther north, thus hastening the end of the war. The Luzon-first course of action, he averred, would be the cheaper in terms of time, men, and money.
Official US Army history
Beijing already has the China coast. Which apex is next? Taiwan or Luzon? Northern Luzon is a much softer military target than Taiwan, whose 22 modern combat brigades cannot be overcome by any force that Chinese amphibious shipping can support without losing the element of surprise. By contrast the Philippine Army would essentially be helpless to prevent a surprise landing by even a brigade sized Chinese force. Luzon has much to recommend it in any campaign against Japan.
It is noteworthy that, with the possible exception of Nimitz, the ranking Army and Navy commanders in the Pacific-the men responsible for executing or supporting the operation-were opposed to the seizure of Formosa. …
Army planners quickly decided that Nimitz’ new plans possessed major drawbacks. The Japanese would hardly allow Allied forces to sit unmolested in southern Formosa. Instead, the Japanese would mount strong counterattacks …They believed that it would inevitably lead to protracted, costly campaigns to secure all Formosa.
Official US Army history
Here lies the crux. Taiwan is much closer to reinforcement from Japan and Okinawa than Luzon and can hold out in the mountainous east indefinitely. No sudden coup de main is possible there.
Only in Luzon is a short-term decisive result achievable in under a month. If China were to gamble, Luzon would be the place to go before Australia, Japan or the US could react. Leaving aside Japan as an objective, China has made no secret of wanting to break the First Island Chain of which Luzon is a part. If you were to break the chain, Luzon is the weakest link. Moreover conflict has far less escalation potential there than in technologically advanced Taiwan.
Suddenly losing Luzon would give Biden the unenviable choice of risking the Third World War over a disposable ally or signal to all that it’s time to “move on” from the US security regime in the Pacific.
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