The spring offensives in Ukraine are about to begin, with Putin thought to go for broke to take Kyiv.
We can be fairly certain that, by alliance rules, all major ground combat will be restricted to Ukraine and no significant strikes against the Russian homeland will occur. Ukraine’s major new capability is the capacity to execute encirclements on an operational scale. Russia will be looking for the deep thrust while Ukraine is looking to capture or destroy a corps or army. Kyiv now has the tools to try. Artillery, armor, some tanks, drone tac air and C3. Enough to campaign inside Ukraine.
Those are the broad physical potentialities of both sides. Within that context each side will have identified a key to breaking the strategic stalement. Maybe Russia has a man in Kyiv; maybe the Ukr has a man in Moscow. That is never known to amateurs like me.
From the speculative point of view, Putin seems attracted to the dramatic, cloak and dagger approach, perhaps because of his background. Somehow the superior Kremlin genius will out think the mediocrities in Washington. But we have learned of late there are morons in Russia too.
Historically the US has been attracted to the more mundane approach of ‘overmatch’. Of never giving the other guy an even break. So surprises from the American side are more likely to be some newly revealed capability rather than in some Napoleon like brilliance.