Intelligence failure again

New at the Belmont Club. Both Putin and Biden are dealing with consequences they never expected.

The Unexpectedly Long War
Surprise.

It was a tale of two blunders. Both Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin made the mistake of believing that the Russian army could conquer Ukraine in two days. The New York Times wrote in perplexity, “In Afghanistan, intelligence agencies had predicted the government and its forces could hold on for at least six months after the U.S. withdrawal. In Ukraine, intelligence officials thought the Russian army would take Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, in two days. Both estimates proved wrong.”

Ukraine

Russian Landing Ships Leave Baltic Sea Raising Concerns That Ukraine May Be Their Final Destination (Updated)
An additional three amphibious warships remain active in the Baltic Sea, with Sweden taking a heavy interest in their movements.

Judging from the amount of prestige and resources Russia has poured into it, Putin seems committed to risk at least limited military action in the Ukraine. It could be a repeat of Putin’s earlier campaign of subversion or involve a conventional overt component.

America’s dilemma is to respond without escalating the military conflict while potentially turning Ukraine, to mix metaphors, into Putin’s Vietnam.

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