True facts

Everyone presumably pays for accurate polling even if it shows them losing because how else can they adjust strategy unless they are in possession of the true facts. Now 3 failed polling predictions in 3 major Anglo democracies raise the question of how they could be so wrong?

David Cameron called the Brexit referendum confident Remain would win. The Hillary Clinton victory fireworks were already laid out. The Australian bookies had already paid those who had bet on Labor to win. Then the unthinkable happened. The sure thing didn’t happen.

Just as historians will forever wonder why the Titanic’s lookouts didn’t see the iceberg so also will political scientists wonder at how pollsters, presumably in honest search of the true facts, with vast sampling resources at their disposal, got it so totally wrong.

The screws tighten

LONDON (Reuters) – Iranian crude oil exports have fallen in May to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) or lower, tanker data showed and industry sources said, after the United States tightened the screws on Tehran’s main source of income, deepening global supply losses.

Reuters

Meanwhile …

DUBAI (Reuters) – Iran said on Friday it could “easily” hit U.S. warships in the Gulf, the latest in days of saber rattling between Washington and Tehran, while its top diplomat worked to counter U.S. sanctions and salvage a nuclear deal denounced by President Donald Trump.

Reuters

Insurer says Iran’s Guards likely to have organized tanker attacks

A confidential assessment issued this week by the Norwegian Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks Insurance Association (DNK) concluded that the attack was likely to have been carried out by a surface vessel operating close by that despatched underwater drones carrying 30-50 kg (65-110 lb) of high-grade explosives to detonate on impact.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-oil-tankers-exclusive-idUSKCN1SN1P7

Now-dead Ohio State doctor accused of abusing at least 177

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — A now-dead Ohio State team doctor sexually abused at least 177 male students over nearly two decades, and university officials knew what he was doing and did little to stop him, according to an investigative report released by the school Friday.

Dr. Richard Strauss committed the abuse from 1979 to 1997 — nearly his entire time at Ohio State — in episodes involving students from at least 16 sports, plus his work at the student health center and his off-campus clinic, the report said.

AP

CGI Democracy

Max Boot, remarking on Duterte’s midterm poll victory in the Philippines tweeted “undermining democracy is popular”. It’s more than’undermining’ but rather fake democracy. The new tactic in hybrid warfare is for strongmen to make dictatorship look like democracy. Just as politicians have learned the art of making war in secret they have perfected the skill tyrannizing in secret. Low observable technology goes beyond stealth airplanes.

Ordinary people are losing the political arms race against their rulers. Digital manipulation, mass surveillance and individual targeting have tipped the scales against publics that rely on traditional protest tactics like marches and rallies. These old methods are increasingly ineffective against an administration that can call on the technical help of China.

Hence protesters are adopting the tactics of the elite and forging international alliances, waging information warfare and reducing rather than amplifying their signature. One bad turn deserves another.

Can the ‘true’ result, if one can call it that, be recovered? The one constant is reality. Duterte’s fraud was primarily digital. The original paper ballots are the scam’s weakness because they are real and therefore harder to change.

Wholly virtual electoral systems are like CGI where anything is possible. Paper ballots and physical artifacts introduce an element of live action requiring an actual something. We have to step back from CGI politics and go back to live action. Just now

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Tuesday after a meeting with FBI officials that Russian hackers successfully penetrated the election systems of two Florida counties in 2016.

“Two Florida counties experienced intrusion into the supervisor of election networks, there was no manipulation or anything but there was voter data that able to be gotten,” said DeSantis. “It did not affect any voting or anything like that.”

But it could have. Virtual systems are far more vulnerable than ones based on stubborn physical artifacts like paper ballots.