New at the Belmont Club. The implausible prophet of the Kremlin.
The Belmont Club is Free to Access
I will be writing both inside and outside the VIP at PJ Media. The Belmont Club will remain publicly accessible as I promised.
Our Recent Past
“Epochal Struggle”
Hitting the Taiwan Beach
The key thing to keep in mind in any conflict in the Indo-Pacific is that sea denial/access depends as much on ground expeditionary forces covering naval movements as it does on forces afloat. This applies to China as much to the USA. “The RAND corporation has run simulations which suggest that it would take a salvo of around 50 missiles to knock out a dozen amphibious warfare ships attempting to cross the relatively narrow Taiwan Strait. It is estimated that it would take a modest 10,000 to 20,000 pounds of ordinance to decimate an amphibious landing force of around 90 ships in a hostile littoral.”
This means China cannot readily advance without suppressing ground based precision fire threats to its amphibious fleet.
Continue reading “Hitting the Taiwan Beach”US, Japan Create Force to Defend Luzon
Japanese defense forces can now deploy to the Philippines. “The new defense agreement allows Japan to deploy its forces for humanitarian missions and disaster response in the Philippines, an arrangement Japan hopes to eventually upgrade to include joint military training, cooperation and mutual visits, Japanese officials said.”
Advisors to the Philippines
Looks like the US is sending advisory teams to the Philippine Army.
Continue reading “Advisors to the Philippines”Man reflected monstrously large
Avoiding the Fatal Confrontation
Defense of the Philippines
US positions in Isabela and Cagayan imply a planned denial of the Luzon Strait to China in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. The position in Palawan suggests a defense of the Sulu Sea and the Central Visayas Inland Sea against the PLAN. Strongly implied: the Philippine Sea ports will be main supply route once the South China Sea is shut down by conflict.
Cold War tourism
The Road of Bones
The singularity, but which?
You are hereby reassigned to the Department of Deadwood. Some think AI can be used to abolish government. China thinks AI can abolish both democracy and capitalism.
Disruptive
College graduates are AI replaceable, Woke activists are irreplaceable.
Continue reading “Disruptive”Spring offensives
The spring offensives in Ukraine are about to begin, with Putin thought to go for broke to take Kyiv.
Continue reading “Spring offensives”And the temples of his gods
Gerard Vanderleun: December 26, 1945 – January 27, 2023
Our Better Demons
New at the Belmont Club. Are we facing a destructive period of renewal? Or can we finesse our way forward in history?
Continue reading “Our Better Demons”The Deprecation of Routine
You would have thought the bureaucrats would be among those most easily replaced by automation, but since it is the law of nature that govt never shrinks, it turns out that you can displace radiologists with AI but never a clerk.
The lawyers may eventually lose this one. Automata charges by the microsecond, not by the hour. AI can learn all the routine stuff. What both man and machine will value most in the future is new knowledge, aka information, aka surprise. There will be no end of potential material as the known unknowns grow faster with each new known known.
Gee Man
After the McGonigal story broke, the first question that came to mind was whether he was misdirecting everything. To use a Le Carre analogy: is there a Hans-Dieter Mundt? Some background.
The Invincible Man With the Badge
The silent victims of the British serial rapist cop have a lot in common with the impoverished victims of 3rd world extrajudicial executions. It is paralyzing fear of police and state power, not misogyny per se that terrifies them. Expanding the Woke state will not solve the problem.
Gerard van der Leun
It’s time for the important things. They will mostly be done for you. God will be with you; your loved ones attend you; your friends pray for you. There are a few preparations you must make alone, but I will follow when the time comes. Your friend Richard.