Hitting the Taiwan Beach

The key thing to keep in mind in any conflict in the Indo-Pacific is that sea denial/access depends as much on ground expeditionary forces covering naval movements as it does on forces afloat. This applies to China as much to the USA. “The RAND corporation has run simulations which suggest that it would take a salvo of around 50 missiles to knock out a dozen amphibious warfare ships attempting to cross the relatively narrow Taiwan Strait. It is estimated that it would take a modest 10,000 to 20,000 pounds of ordinance to decimate an amphibious landing force of around 90 ships in a hostile littoral.”

This means China cannot readily advance without suppressing ground based precision fire threats to its amphibious fleet.

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US, Japan Create Force to Defend Luzon

Japanese defense forces can now deploy to the Philippines. “The new defense agreement allows Japan to deploy its forces for humanitarian missions and disaster response in the Philippines, an arrangement Japan hopes to eventually upgrade to include joint military training, cooperation and mutual visits, Japanese officials said.”

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Defense of the Philippines

US positions in Isabela and Cagayan imply a planned denial of the Luzon Strait to China in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. The position in Palawan suggests a defense of the Sulu Sea and the Central Visayas Inland Sea against the PLAN. Strongly implied: the Philippine Sea ports will be main supply route once the South China Sea is shut down by conflict.

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The singularity, but which?

You are hereby reassigned to the Department of Deadwood. Some think AI can be used to abolish government. China thinks AI can abolish both democracy and capitalism.

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Spring offensives

The spring offensives in Ukraine are about to begin, with Putin thought to go for broke to take Kyiv.

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And the temples of his gods

Gerard Vanderleun: December 26, 1945 – January 27, 2023

The Deprecation of Routine

You would have thought the bureaucrats would be among those most easily replaced by automation, but since it is the law of nature that govt never shrinks, it turns out that you can displace radiologists with AI but never a clerk.

The lawyers may eventually lose this one. Automata charges by the microsecond, not by the hour. AI can learn all the routine stuff. What both man and machine will value most in the future is new knowledge, aka information, aka surprise. There will be no end of potential material as the known unknowns grow faster with each new known known.

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Gee Man

After the McGonigal story broke, the first question that came to mind was whether he was misdirecting everything. To use a Le Carre analogy: is there a Hans-Dieter Mundt? Some background.

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The Invincible Man With the Badge

The silent victims of the British serial rapist cop have a lot in common with the impoverished victims of 3rd world extrajudicial executions. It is paralyzing fear of police and state power, not misogyny per se that terrifies them. Expanding the Woke state will not solve the problem.

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Gerard van der Leun

It’s time for the important things. They will mostly be done for you. God will be with you; your loved ones attend you; your friends pray for you. There are a few preparations you must make alone, but I will follow when the time comes. Your friend Richard.

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