Ukraine

Judging from the amount of prestige and resources Russia has poured into it, Putin seems committed to risk at least limited military action in the Ukraine. It could be a repeat of Putin’s earlier campaign of subversion or involve a conventional overt component.

America’s dilemma is to respond without escalating the military conflict while potentially turning Ukraine, to mix metaphors, into Putin’s Vietnam.

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Europe gas at record high

Russia’s Gazprom PJSC has steadily reduced gas flows to Europe as the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline had its certification delayed until possibly July. No new flows into Europe are forcing utilities to drain their gas storages (already at seasonal lows). Some utilities have had to restart fossil fuel generators to avoid grid disruption.