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Putin’s not a reader

New at the Belmont Club. Don’t look in the mirror if you won’t like what you’ll see.

What We Can Learn From Russia’s Debacle

All hat and no cattle

Intelligence failure again

New at the Belmont Club. Both Putin and Biden are dealing with consequences they never expected.

The Unexpectedly Long War

Surprise.

It was a tale of two blunders. Both Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin made the mistake of believing that the Russian army could conquer Ukraine in two days. The New York Times wrote in perplexity, “In Afghanistan, intelligence agencies had predicted the government and its forces could hold on for at least six months after the U.S. withdrawal. In Ukraine, intelligence officials thought the Russian army would take Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, in two days. Both estimates proved wrong.”

The basics first

New at the Belmont Club. Getting ready for the long haul. It’s a marathon not a sprint.

When Will the War End?

Do you hear horses?

The end of illusion

New at the Belmont Club. Remembering the days when the only problem the great and good had was how to save the world from Climate Change.

The Last Party in Davos 2019

When the world came down from the magic mountain

The war in Ukraine becomes crisis in Russia

New at the Belmont Club. Getting past dead empires and mid-20th century visions of the future.

The End of the Old Normal

The past was a long time ago

Fortunes of War

New at the Belmont Club. When a nuclear armed supervillain loses his shirt at a poker table, what happens next?

Putin’s Failure

Strictly from hunger

Putin vs Biden

New at the Belmont Club. Biden is waiting for Putin to come through the door, not saw a hole in the floor he’s standing on.

Slow Boiling the Western Alliance Like a Frog

The invasion in being

Strange days

New at the Belmont Club. When you realize the driver has no idea where he’s going.

The Crazy Years

Woke enters senescence

You can do it

New at the Belmont Club. When the pandemic finally ends, there’s one last drug you need to stop taking.

Can Politicians Quit the Power Habit?

Just step away from the mandate

Do you recall what was revealed?

New at the Belmont Club. When the officially nonexistent starts knocking at your door.

Protests From Out of Nowhere

Gradually then all of a sudden

Blitzkrieg predicted in Ukraine

Boris Johnson warns Russia has “60 … battle groups” (presumably battalion tactical groups) ready “for a lightning war that could take out Kiev”.

Johnson warns of painful and violent Ukraine ‘lightning war’

Prime minister to hold talks with other political leaders amid fears of imminent Russian invasion

The gambler

New at the Belmont Club. Making the most of a weak hand.

Is Putin Bluffing in Ukraine?

Who’s winning what’s already started

Ukraine

Russian Landing Ships Leave Baltic Sea Raising Concerns That Ukraine May Be Their Final Destination (Updated)

An additional three amphibious warships remain active in the Baltic Sea, with Sweden taking a heavy interest in their movements.

Judging from the amount of prestige and resources Russia has poured into it, Putin seems committed to risk at least limited military action in the Ukraine. It could be a repeat of Putin’s earlier campaign of subversion or involve a conventional overt component.

America’s dilemma is to respond without escalating the military conflict while potentially turning Ukraine, to mix metaphors, into Putin’s Vietnam.