There was a scripted outcome that fell apart. The IRGC tried to ad lib but flubbed its lines. The open source evidence points to an attempt to goad the Trump admin into escalation in the belief that would damage the US politically. The fish weren’t biting that day but they’ll try again.
It seems that those who planned the attack believed that at least one ship would sink and that they could valiantly rescue the sailors. …
In addition they likely hoped the ship would sink with the evidence aboard, including the unexploded mine. …
The Iranians didn’t stop trying to get hold of both ships until June 14. An Iranian tugboat reportedly approached the Kokuka and even wanted to push it back towards Iranian waters before the Bainbridge interceded.
The problem with hybrid operations is complexity. The Iranians were aiming for political and media effects not simply kinetic ones. The scenario called for valiantly forcibly rescuing the survivors. That meant the explosive couldn’t be too big. But it proved too small.
Modern warfare as it exists, less resembles WW2 than the rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel or the shooting up of Sri Lankan “Easter worshipper” churches. The objective isn’t geographical features but column inches, invitations to talk shows, followers on Twitter.
The goal of modern war is not the conquest of a state but its takeover by means of assisting to power the domestic political force most congenial to the attacker. “Collusion” is not the exception but the entire point.
In fairness this is exactly the game America is playing against Iran. It doesn’t want to conquer the territory but ensure that a “moderate” and/or “reformist” faction comes to power in Tehran. It would be silly to think China and Russia are not trying the same stunt on Washington.
That’s why the cry “sappers are in the wire” is still valid even though it’s a different kind of sapper and a different kind of wire.
https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/theyre-coming-through-the-wire/
One of the reasons things are so confused and upsetting is that the media, which heretofore stood off to one side as chroniclers of the kinetic battle, are now one of the combatant arms. They are the panzer columns of modern hybrid war, along with the social media platforms.