Defense of the Philippines

US positions in Isabela and Cagayan imply a planned denial of the Luzon Strait to China in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. The position in Palawan suggests a defense of the Sulu Sea and the Central Visayas Inland Sea against the PLAN. Strongly implied: the Philippine Sea ports will be main supply route once the South China Sea is shut down by conflict.

U.S. to Boost Military Role in the Philippines in Push to Counter China

Washington and Manila announced a plan to give the American military access to four new locations in the Southeast Asian country, a growing strategic partner in the region.

In November, Lt. Gen. Bartolome Vicente Bacarro of the Philippines said that Washington had identified five possible sites, including two in Cagayan, one in Palawan, one in Zambales and one in Isabela. Cagayan and Isabela are in the northern part of the Philippines, with Cagayan sitting across from Taiwan.

US control of the South China Sea is not assured. It will be contested by PLAN and the Quad Alliance in the estimated 2025 time frame.

Read for Yourself: The Full Memo from AMC Gen. Mike Minihan | Air & Space Forces Magazine

Air Mobility Command Gen. Mike Minihan released a memo warning of a war with China and offering direction to Airmen. Read the full text.

SUBJECT: February 2023 Orders in Preparation for — The Next Fight

SITUATION. I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. [Chinese President Xi Jinping] secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025. We spent 2022 setting the foundation for victory. We will spend 2023 in crisp operational motion building on that foundation. If you want to know what the operational motion I demand looks like, look at what Total Force Team Charleston did in January.

COMMANDER’S INTENT. Go faster. Drive readiness, integration, and agility for ourselves and the Joint Force to deter, and if required, defeat China. This is the first of 8 monthly directives from me. You need to know I alone own the pen on these orders. My expectations are high, and these orders are not up for negotiation. Follow them. I will be tough, fair, and loving in my approach to secure victory.

END STATE. A fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team ready to fight and win inside the first island chain. Maximize the use of the force and the tools we currently have and extract full value from things that currently exist. Close the gaps: C2, navigation, maneuver under attack, and tempo.

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