In terms of conventional warfare the Taliban’s rapid, unopposed advance had the effect of encircling and cutting off 10,000 or more US citizens and upwards of 50,000 Afghans from friendly lines. They are in the “bag”.
The best chance of relief lay in the first days when the situation was fluid and the “bag” was full of holes. But with each passing day, the dispersal of civilians fleeing for their lives and the consolidation of Taliban lines has tightened the ring and a sudden dash to freedom is now very difficult.
The obvious options remaining to Biden are to:
- Ransom them out for money and political concessions with all the humiliation and cost this entails. Negotiations to explore this alternative are probably under way, allowing the Taliban to dig in deeper, bearing in mind the capture of ANA stocks gives them unlimited ammunition and heavy weapons plus US trained deserters to operate them.
- Mount an airborne operation to secure a significant American enclave into which civilian American and SIV survivors can be shepherded. The word “survivors” is deliberately used because civilian casualties may be heavy. Since Pakistan must be overflown, surprise will be minimal and resistance possible.
- Give them up for lost and move on after making a speech the media will praise as being “able to make a tough call”.
The biggest risk is Biden himself, whose slow reactions and evasions and lumbering cogitations leave little to admire.