There are two, possibly three themes in this thoughtful email from a friend, who because of his public character, I’ve reproduced anonymously though with his permission. The email’s main points are:
- The world is in the midst of a paradigm shift comparable to the industrial or perhaps agricultural revolution;
- America and perhaps the West is in a crisis of political liberty that has resulted in a ‘house divided’ situation.
- These issues have to be resolved politically or the current order risks collapse.
While I am glad that at least some people in wider public life are willing to think outside conventional platitudes I cannot help but agree with the closing sentence: “My sense is that our current politicians and elites are more Robespierre than Ben Franklin.” If America is truly headed for a civil war it does so without any obvious Lincolns.
For most of human history the organizational construct of society was a small elite ruling people as chattel. At the time of Founding Fathers 70% of humanity was either serfs or slaves. The organizational principle of the American republic was based on two principles, individual liberty and government legitimacy based on the consent of the governed, as Lincoln said of the people, by the people and for the people. This idea proved highly popular and delivered economic prosperity, social mobility, human rights and stability, obviously not perfectly but better then any other society had or has ever done.
Whenever the natural tendency of power concentration raised its head in our history, we have found a way to resist it and stay true to our founding principles. The Founding Fathers gave the world, and America is a microcosm of the world, a wonderful gift. Are we up to the task of keeping it and passing it on to future generations or will it end with us.
As far as I’m concerned the jury is out.
We can’t underestimate the threat. In a world of robotics and AI what role will limited educated people play? Are they really needed? At a minimum they can be warehoused in their smart city homes, paid a basic income stipend, amused by Netflix and Play-station, and have their meatless food delivered to them. We’re potentially going back to the age of the Pharos with a small elite and masses of laborers and slaves. With technology to enable it. Today we’re closer to 1984 than any other time in our history. And in which direction are we further moving? Dark Winter anybody?
I do believe if the American Republic falls we will turn the world into many competing feudal states under local warlords, not a unified utopian global government. Without a global policeman to enforce accepted rules, it’s every group for itself. There is no stability without either consensus or coercion.
The key question to me is not so much what is to come but rather what do we do to get our civilization back on the right track for individual liberty and prosperity.
Here’s my position on the current US political situation:
A nation divided cannot stand. History teaches us that unresolved internal divisions lead to disaster. There are two ways to get to a national consensus. One is through debate, reason and compromise, the Founding Father way. The other is orthodoxy enforced by coercion, the Jacobin and Bolshevik Soviet method. My sense is that our current politicians and elites are more Robespierre than Ben Franklin.